Ag Informer – Net Farm Income Forecasts (Part 1)

USDA’s first official net farm income forecast of the year shows higher costs will drive down 2023 net farm income, but the bigger factor is the forecast for a decline in commodity prices. If commodity prices can at least hold where prices sit today, the picture won’t turn bleak, at least for this year, but it’s still a changing scenario from 2023.

Initial Forecast Points to Expected Drop in Cash Receipts, Government Payments

ERS forecasts cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities to drop $23.6 billion, or 4.3%. That’s after a record high forecast for last year of $543.4 billion. USDA says those specializing in dairy and hogs are expected to see the largest decline relative to 2022.

The breakdown of cash receipts broken down by commodity includes:

•    Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by $8.9 billion (3.1 percent) from the forecast 2022 level
•    The drop is led by lower receipts for soybeans and corn
•    Total animal/animal product receipts are expected to decrease by $14.7 billion (5.7 percent)
•    The decline in livestock is driven by lower receipts for milk, eggs, broilers and hogs.